Global burden and prediction study of cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma from 1990 to 2030: A systematic analysis and comparison with China.

Background: China has the highest number of new cancer cases and deaths globally. Due to particularly low scores in health care quality for cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC), the country's cSCC burden requires greater awareness. Consequently, we aimed to evaluate and predict the trend of the cSCC burden globally and in China from 1990 to 2030. Methods: We retrieved data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study, which provided estimates of the incidence, mortality, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of cSCC from 1990 to 2019. We set up joint-point analyses and Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) models to predict the disease burden of cSCC up to 2030. Results: In 2019, China reported age-standardised rates of cSCC prevalence, incidence, mortality, and DALYs of 2.54, 2.12, 0.88, and 16.76 per 100 000 population, respectively. The country's prevalence and incidence rates from 1990 to 2019 were lower than the global levels, but its mortality and DALY rates were higher. The age-standardised rates were higher for males, and the disease burden increased with each age group globally and in China. Moreover, the average annual percentage change showed all indicators were growing faster than the global levels. According to the BAPC model, there will be an upward trend in the prevalence and incidence globally and in China between 2020 and 2030, with a decrease in mortality and DALYs. Conclusions: We observed an upward trend in the cSCC burden over the past 30 years in China. Prevalence and incidence are expected to continue at a higher rate than the global average in the next decade, while mortality and DALYs are predicted to decrease. As the Chinese population ages, efforts toward managing and preventing cSCC should be targeted towards the elderly population.

Risk and sex-specific trends of dementia and stroke in Italy Compared to European and high-income countries and the world: global implications.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the increasing trends in Italy may inform new prevention strategies and better treatments. We investigated trends and risk factors of dementia, stroke, and ischemic heart disease (IHD) in Italy with the second-oldest population globally, compared to European and high-income countries and the world. METHODS: We analyzed the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019 estimates on incidence and burden (i.e., disability and death combined) of the three conditions in both sexes. We also analyzed the burden attributable to 12 modifiable risk factors and their changes during 1990-2019. RESULTS: In 2019, Italy had 186,108 new dementias (123,885 women) and 94,074 new strokes (53,572 women). Women had 98% higher crude dementia and 24% higher crude stroke burdens than men. The average age-standardized new dementia rate was 114.7 per 100,000 women and 88.4 per 100,000 men, both higher than Western Europe, the European Union, high-income countries, and the world. During 1990-2019, this rate increased in both sexes (4%), despite a decline in stroke (- 45%) and IHD (- 17%) in Italy. Dementia burden attributable to tobacco decreased in both sexes (- 12.7%) during 1990-2019, while high blood glucose and high body mass index combined burden increased (25.4%). Stroke and IHD had similar trends. CONCLUSIONS: While decreases in new strokes and IHDs are encouraging, new approaches to their joint prevention are required to reverse the rising dementia trends, especially among women. Life course approaches to promoting holistic brain health should be implemented at the community, national, and international levels before the growing trends become overwhelming.

Global, regional, and national burden of inguinal, femoral, and abdominal hernias: a systematic analysis of prevalence, incidence, deaths, and DALYs with projections to 2030.

BACKGROUND: Hernias, particularly inguinal, femoral, and abdominal, present a global health challenge. While the global burden of disease (GBD) study offers insights, systematic analyses of hernias remain limited. This research utilizes the GBD dataset to explore hernia implications, combining current statistics with 2030 projections and frontier analysis. METHODS: We analyzed data from the 2019 GBD Study, focusing on hernia-related metrics: prevalence, incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) across 204 countries and territories, grouped into 21 GBD regions by the socio-demographic index (SDI). Data analysis encompassed relative change calculations, as well as annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC), both of which are based on joinpoint regression analysis. The study additionally employed frontier analysis and utilized the Bayesian age-period-cohort model for predicting trends up to 2030. Analyses utilized R version 4.2.3. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2019, the global prevalence of hernia cases surged by 36%, reaching over 32.5 million, even as age-standardized rates declined. A similar pattern was seen in mortality and DALYs, with absolute figures rising but age-standardized rates decreasing. Gender data between 1990 and 2019 showed consistent male dominance in hernia prevalence, even as rates for both genders fell. Regionally, Andean Latin America had the highest prevalence, with Central Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia noting significant increases and decreases, respectively. Frontier analyses across 204 countries and territories linked higher SDIs with reduced hernia prevalence. Yet, some high SDI countries, like Japan and Lithuania, deviated unexpectedly. Predictions up to 2030 anticipate increasing hernia prevalence, predominantly in males, while age-standardized death rates and age-standardized DALY rates are expected to decline. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis reveals a complex interplay between socio-demographic factors and hernia trends, emphasizing the need for targeted healthcare interventions. Despite advancements, vigilance and continuous research are essential for optimal hernia management globally.

Colorectal cancer and its attributable risk factors in East Asia, 1990-2030.

BACKGROUND: The disease burden of colorectal cancer in East Asia has been at a high level. However, the epidemiological characteristics of the disease burden in this region have not been systematically studied. METHOD: Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 program. Joinpoint analysis was used to identify long-term trends in mortality of colorectal cancer. Independent effects of age, period, and cohort were detected by the age-period-cohort model. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model was performed to predict the burden of colorectal cancer across East Asia by 2030. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2019, the average annual percentage change (AAPC) showed upward trends in mainland China (1.05 [95% confidence interval (CI)], 0.82, 1.28) as well as Taiwan Province of China (1.81 [95% CI], 1.51, 2.10) but downward in Japan (-0.60 [95% CI], -0.70, -0.49) (P < 0.05). Attributable risk factors for colorectal cancer in East Asia remained stable over 30 years, while the risk of metabolic factors is noteworthy in the future. In the next decade, the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) of colorectal cancer in China was predicted to surpass that of Japan and South Korea in expectation. CONCLUSION: The mortality of colorectal cancer is escalating in developing countries, while it is gradually declining in high-income countries across East Asia. Nonetheless, the disease burden of colorectal cancer in high-income countries remains substantial level.

Secular trends in incidence and mortality of cervical cancer in India and its states, 1990-2019: data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study.

BACKGROUND: Cervical cancer is the fourth most common cancer that occurs to women worldwide. This study aims to assess trends in incidence and mortality of cervical cancer in India and its states over past three decades for tracking the progress of strategies for the prevention and control of cervical cancer. METHODS: Data on cervical cancer incidence and mortality from 1990 to 2019 for India and its states were extracted from Global Burden of Disease study and were utilized for the analysis. Spatial and rank map has been used to see the changes in incidence and mortality of cervical cancer in different Indian states. Further, joinpoint regression analysis is applied to determine the magnitude of the time trends in the age standardized incidence and mortality rates of cervical cancer. We obtained the average annual percent change (AAPC) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) for each state. RESULTS: Overall, from 1990 to 2019 Jharkhand (Incidence: -50.22%; Mortality: -56.16%) recorded the highest percentage decrement in cervical cancer incidence and mortality followed by the Himachal Pradesh (Incidence: -48.34%; Mortality: -53.37%). Tamilnadu (1st rank), Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh (32nd rank) maintained the same rank over the period of three decade for age standardized cervical cancer incidence and mortality. The regression model showed a significant declining trend in India between 1990 and 2019 for age standardized incidence rate (AAPC: -0.82; 95%CI: -1.39 to -0.25; p < 0.05) with highest decline in the period 1998-2005 (AAPC: -3.22; 95%CI: -3.83 to -2.59; p < 0.05). Similarly, a significant declining trend was observed in the age standardized mortality rate of India between 1990 and 2019(AAPC: -1.35; 95%CI: -1.96 to -0.75; p < 0.05) with highest decline in the period 1998-2005 (AAPC: -3.52; 95%CI: -4.17 to -2.86; p < 0.05). CONCLUSION: Though the incidence and mortality of cervical cancer declined over past three decades but it is still a major public health problem in India. Information, education and communication activities for girls, boys, parents and community for the prevention and control of cervical cancer should be provided throughout the country.

Global burden and attributable risk factors of acute lymphoblastic leukemia in 204 countries and territories in 1990-2019: Estimation based on Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

To provide a foundational guideline for policy-makers to efficiently allocate medical resources in the context of population aging and growth, the latest spatial distribution and temporal trend of acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) along with attributable risk factors by sex and age were mapped. Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was calculated according to the relativity between age-standardized rate and calendar year, to quantify temporal trends in morbidity and mortality of ALL. We used applied Spearman rank correlation to estimate the relationship between the EAPC and potential influence factors. The population attributable fraction of potential risk factors for ALL-related disability-adjusted life years were estimated by the comparative risk assessment framework. As a result, we found that new ALL cases increased significantly by 1.29% worldwide, and the age-standardized incidence rate increased by 1.61% annually. The proportion of elder patients sharply increased, especially within the higher socio-demographic index (SDI) region. Smoking and high body mass index remained the predominant risk factors for ALL-related mortality. Notably, the contribution of high body mass index presented an increasing trend. In conclusion, the global burden of ALL has steadily increased, especially in Middle SDI region. Health measures and new drugs should be taken into consideration to improve the management and treatment of elders with ALL due to an increasing proportion in the higher SDI region. For Low SDI areas, attention should be paid to the environmental problems caused by industrial development.

Spatiotemporal trends of the global burden of melanoma in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019: Results from the 2019 global burden of disease study.

This study aimed to estimate the latest magnitudes and temporal trends of melanoma burden at the national, regional, and global levels. The data on melanoma incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 204 countries and territories between 1990 and 2019 came from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study. Estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was calculated to depict the temporal trends and Spearman rank correlation was used to analyze the influential factors of EAPC. From 1990 to 2019, the incident cases of melanoma increased by 170% to 289,950, death increased by 90% to 62,840, and DALYs increased by 67% to 1,707,800 globally. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of melanoma increased globally by an average of 1.13 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.93-1.32], while the age-standardized rates of death and DALYs both declined with the EAPC of -0.27 (95% CI: -0.36 to -0.19) and -0.49 (95% CI: -0.57 to -0.41). In 2019, the highest burden of melanoma was observed in Australasia, followed by high-income North America and Europe regions, which all presented an incremental growth in ASIR. The positive association between the EAPC in ASIR and socio-demographic index (SDI) in 2019 (ρ = 0.600, P < 0.001) suggested that countries with higher SDI have experienced a more rapid increase in ASIR of melanoma. In conclusion, the burden of melanoma is increasing globally but differed greatly across the world. Notably, the high burden areas are facing a continuing increase in incidence, which implies more targeted strategies should be taken for reducing the increasing melanoma burden.

Global, regional and national burden of primary liver cancer by subtype.

INTRODUCTION: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (iCCA) are the two main histological subtypes of primary liver cancer. Estimates of the burden of liver cancer by subtype are needed to facilitate development and evaluation of liver cancer control globally. We provide worldwide, regional and national estimates of HCC and iCCA incidence using high-quality data. METHODS: We used population-based cancer registry data on liver cancer cases by histological subtype from 95 countries to compute the sex- and country-specific distributions of HCC, iCCA and other specified histology. Subtype distributions were applied to estimates of total liver cancer cases for 2018 from the Global Cancer Observatory. Age-standardised incidence rates (ASRs) were calculated. RESULTS: There were an estimated 826,000 cases of liver cancer globally in 2018: 661,000 HCC (ASR 7.3 cases per 100,000); 123,000 iCCA (ASR 1.4) and 42,000 other specified histology (ASR 0.5). HCC contributed 80% of the world total liver cancer burden followed by iCCA (14.9%) and other specified histology (5.1%). HCC rates were highest in Eastern Asia (ASR 14.8), Northern Africa (ASR 13.2) and South-Eastern Asia (ASR 9.5). Rates of iCCA were highest in South-Eastern Asia (ASR 2.9), Eastern Asia (ASR 2.0), Northern Europe, the Caribbean and Central America and Oceania (ASR all 1.8). CONCLUSION: We have shown the importance of uncovering the distinct patterns of the major subtypes of liver cancer. The use of these estimates is critical to further develop public health policy to reduce the burden of liver cancer and monitor progress in controlling HCC and iCCA globally.

Spatial and temporal patterns of prostate cancer burden and their association with Socio-Demographic Index in Asia, 1990-2019.

BACKGROUND: Prostate cancer is the second most frequently diagnosed cancer for males worldwide, but the spatial and temporal trends of prostate cancer burden remain unknown in Asia. This study aimed to investigate the changing spatial and temporal trends of incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life year (DALY), and mortality-to-incidence ratio (MIR) of prostate cancer, and their association with the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) in 48 Asian countries from 1990 to 2019. METHODS: Data were extracted from the Global Health Data Exchange query tool, covering 48 Asian countries from 1990 to 2019. The average annual percent change was calculated to evaluate temporal trends. Spatial autocorrelation analysis was used to obtain spatial patterns, and the association between SDI and prostate cancer burden was estimated using a spatial panel model. RESULTS: In Asia, the age-standardized incidence and prevalence of prostate cancer increased in almost all countries, and its mortality and DALY also increased in over half of the countries. Significantly regional disparities were found in Asia, and the hot spots for incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALY were all located in Western Asia, the hot spots of percent change also occurred in Western Asia for incidence and DALY. Furthermore, SDI had a positive association with mortality (coef = 2.51, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.13-2.90) and negative association with DALY (coef = -14.99, 95% CI: -20.37 to -9.60) and MIR (coef = -0.95, 95%CI: -0.99 to -0.92). CONCLUSIONS: Prostate cancer burden increased rapidly throughout Asia and substantial disparities had persisted between countries. Geographically targeted interventions are needed to reduce the prostate cancer burden throughout Asia and in specific countries.

Global Burden and Trends in Incidence, Mortality, and Disability of Stomach Cancer From 1990 to 2017.

INTRODUCTION: Stomach cancer is a serious global public health problem. The current burden of stomach cancer and its trends across time and location need to be understood to develop effective preventive strategies. METHODS: Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease study. The burden of stomach cancer and variations in time and geographical regions were assessed according to the age-standardized rate and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of the incidence and mortality rate between 1991 and 2017. We also investigated the associations between the relevant rates and sociodemographic index (SDI). RESULTS: Overall, the age-standardized incidence rate (EAPC = -1.36, 95% confidence interval [CI]: -1.47 to -1.25), age-standardized mortality rate (EAPC = -2.2, 95% CI: -2.29 to -2.12), and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years rate (EAPC = -2.52, 95% CI: -2.63 to -2.43) decreased worldwide from 1990 to 2017. This trend varied across different countries and regions and according to sex and age. SDI had a significant negative correlation with the age-standardized mortality rate (P < 0.01, r = -0.28) and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years rate (P < 0.01, r = -0.31). Similar negative correlations were observed between SDI and the EAPC. DISCUSSION: The observed correlation between SDI and disease burden suggests that strategically implementing the screening and eradication of Helicobacter pylori, improving the medical level in countries with low SDI, and promoting the implementation of tobacco cessation policies would help reduce the disease burden of stomach cancer.

Burden of Thyroid Cancer From 1990 to 2019 and Projections of Incidence and Mortality Until 2039 in China: Findings From Global Burden of Disease Study.

Projecting the burden of thyroid cancer (TC) over time provides essential information to effectively plan measures for its management and prevention. This research obtained data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study from between 1990 and 2019 to model how TC will affect China until 2039 by conducting the Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis. The number of new TC cases in China was 10,030 in 1990, 39,080 in 2019, and is projected to be 47,820 in 2039. This corresponds to 3,320, 7,240, and 4,160 deaths, respectively. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) cases increased from 103,490 in 1990 to 187,320 in 2019. The age-standardized rate (ASR) of incidence increased from 1.01 to 2.05 during 1990-2019 and was projected to increase to 3.37 per 100,000 person-years until 2039. The ASR of mortality (ASMR) remained stable during the study period and was projected to have a mild decline from 0.39 to 0.29/100,000 during 2020-2039. Although the ASMR in male patients has maintained increasing at a rate of 2.2% per year over the past 30 years, it is expected to decline at a rate of 1.07% per year in 2019-2039. The most significant increase in crude incidence occurred in people aged 45-65 from 1990 to 2019, however, this will shift into young people aged 10-24 from 2020 to 2039. In addition, the proportion of deaths and DALYs caused by obesity increased from 1990 to 2019 and affected men more than women. In conclusion, a substantial increase in counts of incidence of TC in China is projected over the next two decades, combined with the slightly declining mortality, indicating that rational health policies are needed in the future to cope with the increasing number of TC patients, especially among males and adolescents.

Secular Trends in the Epidemiologic Patterns of Thyroid Cancer in China Over Three Decades: An Updated Systematic Analysis of Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 Data.

Background: Thyroid cancer is the most common malignant endocrine disease worldwide. The changing epidemiologic pattern of thyroid cancer at the national level in China has remained unknown over the last three decades. Methods: Following the general analytical strategy used in the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019, the age- and sex-specific incidence, mortality, and prevalence rates of thyroid cancer in China were analyzed. Trends in the incidence, mortality, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to thyroid cancer from 1990 to 2019 were assessed by joinpoint regression analysis. Age, period, and cohort effects on incidence were estimated by an age-period-cohort model. Results: From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized prevalence and incidence rates significantly increased in both males and females, and the age-standardized mortality rate decreased in females but increased in males. Moreover, the increments in all the age-standardized measures of thyroid cancer in China were higher in males than in females. The age effect showed that those aged 40-44 years had the highest relative risk (RR) among females, and the RR increased with age among males. The incidence increased with time and began to substantially increase in 2009. The cohort effect showed that the incidence decreased in successive birth cohorts. Conclusions: The burden of thyroid cancer in China showed unexpected patterns that varied by sex, age, and year. Notably, males had higher average annual percentage changes in thyroid cancer incidence and mortality rates than females. More attention should be given to improving the thyroid cancer burden in males in China.

Global, regional, and national burden of blindness and vision loss due to common eye diseases along with its attributable risk factors from 1990 to 2019: a systematic analysis from the global burden of disease study 2019.

To map the magnitudes and temporal trends of blindness and vision loss (BVL) due to common eye diseases along with its attributable risk factors at the national, regional, and global levels. The annual burden of BVL in 204 countries and territories was extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and causes composition change were calculated to quantify the temporal trends of BVL-related disease burden by sex, region, and eye disease. The global disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of BVL increased from 12.44 million in 1990 to 22.56 million in 2019, with a slightly decreased rate from 3.03 to 2.78 per 1000 population (EAPC = -0.30). About 29.6% of BVL-related DALYs worldwide were caused by cataract, followed by refraction disorders (29.1%), near vision loss (21.7%), other vision loss (13.7%), glaucoma (3.3%), and age-related macular degeneration (2.5%) in 2019. The age-standardized DALYs rates due to each eye disease type in most regions were decreased, especially in countries with high burden and high-middle socio-demographic index. Moreover, the contribution of smoking and air pollution from solid fuels to BVL burden decreased, however, the age-standardized burden of BVL attributed to high body-mass index and high fasting plasma glucose elevated gradually across almost all regions. The temporal trend of BVL burden due to specific eye diseases varies remarkably by region, sex and age. Understanding the real-time patterns of BVL burden is crucial for formulating more effective and targeted prevention and healthcare strategies to decrease the BVL burden.

Global burden of thyroid cancer and its attributable risk factors in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019.

BACKGROUND: To investigate the burden of thyroid cancer and its attributable risk factors in 204 countries and territories during 30 years. METHODS: We extracted data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 database, including incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and the attributable risk factors of thyroid cancer from 1990 to 2019. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) were calculated to assess the changes in age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR). We also examined the associations between cancer burden and the sociodemographic index (SDI). RESULTS: The global new cases, death, and DALYs of thyroid cancer in 2019 were 233 847 (95% UI: 211 637-252 807), 45 576 (95% UI: 41 290-48 775), and 1 231 841 (95% UI: 1 113 585-1 327 064), respectively. From 1990 to 2019, the ASIR of thyroid cancer showed an upward trend (EAPC = 1.25), but ASMR (EAPC = -0.15) and ASDR (EAPC = -0.14) decreased. The burden of thyroid cancer varied at regional and national levels, but the association between ASIR and SDI was positive. We found that the burden of thyroid cancer was mainly concentrated in females and that the age of onset tended to be younger. The proportion of DALYs from thyroid cancer attributable to high body-mass index was higher in high SDI regions, especially in males. CONCLUSIONS: The global incidence of thyroid cancer has continued to increase in the past three decades. The high body-mass index as an important risk factor for thyroid cancer deserves greater attention, especially in high SDI regions.

Assessment of Global Trends in the Diagnosis of Mesothelioma From 1990 to 2017.

Importance: It is difficult for policy makers and clinicians to formulate targeted management strategies for mesothelioma because data on current epidemiological patterns worldwide are lacking. Objective: To evaluate the mesothelioma burden across the world and describe its epidemiological distribution over time and by sociodemographic index (SDI) level, geographic location, sex, and age. Design, Setting, and Participants: Annual case data and age-standardized rates of incidence, death, and disability-adjusted life-years associated with mesothelioma among different age groups were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2017 database. The estimated annual percentage changes in age-standardized rates were calculated to evaluate temporal trends in incidence and mortality. The study population comprised individuals from 21 regions in 195 countries and territories who were diagnosed with mesothelioma between 1990 and 2017. Data were collected from May 23, 2019, to January 18, 2020. Main Outcomes and Measures: Primary outcomes were incident cases, deaths, and their age-standardized rates and estimated annual percentage changes. Secondary outcomes were disability-adjusted life-years and relative temporal trends. Results: Overall, 34 615 new cases (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 33 530-35 697 cases) of mesothelioma and 29 909 deaths (95% UI, 29 134-30 613 deaths) associated with mesothelioma were identified in 2017, and more than 70% of these cases and deaths were among male individuals. In 1990, the number of incident cases was 21 224 (95% UI, 17 503-25 450), and the number of deaths associated with mesothelioma was 17 406 (95% UI, 14 495-20 660). These numbers increased worldwide from 1990 to 2017, with more than 50% of cases recorded in regions with high SDI levels, whereas the age-standardized incidence rate (from 0.52 [95% UI, 0.43-0.62] in 1990 to 0.44 [95% UI, 0.42-0.45] in 2017) and the age-standardized death rate (from 0.44 [95% UI, 0.37-0.52] in 1990 to 0.38 [95% UI, 0.37-0.39] in 2017) decreased, with estimated annual percentage changes of -0.61 (95% CI, -0.67 to -0.54) for age-standardized incidence rate and -0.44 (95% CI, -0.52 to -0.37) for age-standardized death rate. The proportion of incident cases among those 70 years or older continued to increase (from 36.49% in 1990 to 44.67% in 2017), but the proportion of patients younger than 50 years decreased (from 16.74% in 1990 to 13.75% in 2017) over time. In addition, mesothelioma incident cases and age-standardized incidence rates began to decrease after 20 years of a complete ban on asbestos use. For example, in Italy, a complete ban on asbestos went into effect in 1992; incident cases increased from 1409 individuals (95% UI, 1013-1733 individuals) in 1990, peaked in 2015 after 23 years of the asbestos ban, then decreased from 1820 individuals (95% UI, 1699-1981 individuals) in 2015 to 1746 individuals (95% UI, 1555-1955 individuals) in 2017. Conclusions and Relevance: This cross-sectional study found that incident cases of mesothelioma and deaths associated with mesothelioma continuously increased worldwide, especially in resource-limited regions with low SDI levels. Based on these findings, global governments and medical institutions may consider formulating optimal policies and strategies for the targeted prevention and management of mesothelioma.

Global patterns of necrotizing soft tissue infections: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Frequency, microbiology, and outcomes of necrotizing soft tissue infections vary based on locoregional and environmental factors; however, there has been no global survey of these patterns. We performed a systematic review/meta-analysis on published reports of necrotizing soft tissue infections from across the globe. METHODS: Peer-reviewed empirical studies examining rates of polymicrobial and monomicrobial necrotizing soft tissue infections with microbial isolation and overall mortality rate were extracted along with geographic location using PubMed, Scopus, ProQuest, and Web of Science. Random-effects meta-analyses and sensitivity analyses were performed, adjusting for publication bias. Meta-regression analyses examined moderator effects of risk factors. RESULTS: One hundred and five studies (8,718 total patients) were included. Pooled prevalence of polymicrobial and monomicrobial infections were 53% and 37.9%, respectively. Truncal necrotizing soft tissue infections were commonly polymicrobial (P < .001), whereas monomicrobial infections prevailed in extremities (P = .008). Global prevalence of monomicrobial necrotizing soft tissue infections was observed to increase by 1.1% annually (P = .003). Staphylococcus aureus was the most common organism globally and in North America, Asia, the Middle East, and Africa, followed by Streptococcus pyogenes and Escherichia coli. Methicillin-resistant S. aureus accounted for 16% of necrotizing soft tissue infections globally. Overall mortality was 23.1%, observed to decline globally over the last decade (P = .020). No regional differences were noted for mortality. CONCLUSION: Although polymicrobial infections remain predominant worldwide, the incidence of monomicrobial infections is increasing. The observed decline in necrotizing soft tissue infection-related mortality is encouraging and may reflect advances in management, despite major variations in available healthcare resources globally.

Global Incidence and Mortality of Gastric Cancer, 1980-2018.

Importance: Gastric cancer is one of the most common cancers, with a high mortality-to-incidence ratio. It is uncertain whether developed nations may encounter an increasing burden of gastric cancer in young adults, as occurs for other cancers. Objectives: To evaluate the incidence and mortality of gastric cancer and compare the global incidence trends between younger (<40 years) and older (≥40 years) populations. Design, Setting, and Participants: This population-based cohort study analyzed data from global and national cancer registries, including data from 1980 to 2018, with at least 15 calendar years of incidence and mortality data. Data on age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of gastric cancer among 48 countries were retrieved from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program, the National Cancer Institute, the Nordic Cancer Registries, and the World Health Organization Mortality Database. The 10-year incidence trend of gastric cancer was assessed by age and sex. The 2018 GLOBOCAN database was used for reporting the global incidence and mortality of gastric cancer, the most recent data available at the time of analysis. Analyses were performed between January 10, 2020, and March 20, 2020. Main Outcomes and Measures: The average annual percent change (AAPC) of the incidence and mortality trends as evaluated by joinpoint regression analysis. Results: A total of 1 033 701 new cases of gastric cancer and 782 685 related deaths were reported in 2018. Overall, the incidence of gastric cancer decreased in 29 countries, and mortality decreased in 41 countries. The age-standardized incidence of gastric cancer decreased from a range of 2.6 to 59.1 in 1980 to a range of 2.5 to 56.8 in 2018 per 100 000 persons. The overall age-standardized mortality rate changed from a range of 1.3 to 25.8 in 1980 to a range of 1.5 to 18.5 in 2018 per 100 000 persons, but increasing mortality was observed in Thailand (female: AAPC, 5.30; 95% CI, 4.38-6.23; P < .001; male: AAPC, 3.92; 95% CI, 2.14-5.74; P < .001). The incidence of gastric cancer decreased in most regions among individuals 40 years or older and increased in populations younger than 40 years in several countries, including Sweden (male: AAPC, 13.92; 95% CI, 7.16-21.11; P = .001), Ecuador (female: AAPC, 6.05; 95% CI, 1.40-10.92; P = .02), and the UK (male: AAPC, 4.27; 95% CI, 0.15-8.55; P = .04; female: AAPC, 3.60; 95% CI, 3.59-3.61; P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance: In this population-based cohort study, an increasing incidence of gastric cancer was observed in younger individuals in some countries, highlighting the need for more preventive strategies in younger populations. Future research should explore the reasons for these epidemiologic trends.

Sociodemographic index and global trends in prostate cancer: 1990-2017.

BACKGROUND: Considered globally, prostate cancer is a disease of the aging male that increases in prevalence with exposure to screening and diagnostic testing, and which requires a population with the health and longevity to encounter it. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) dataset is an aggregation of worldwide registries and health data systems that reports global and regional assessment of disease impact. METHODS: Using the GBD database, 1171 worldwide registries and health registration systems from 1990 to 2016 were aggregated for prostate cancer disease codes and outcomes. Disease-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) were calculated and segregated by sociodemographic index (SDI) quintile, and compared to other urologic diseases and tuberculosis (TB). RESULTS: Prostate cancer exerts a burden of disease that is vastly higher in the top quintile of SDI. The three lowest SDI quintiles represent the majority of global population but are currently less impacted by prostate cancer. Conversely, TB has its highest impact on the lowest SDI levels, although these rates are declining. CONCLUSIONS: As a global disease, prostate cancer predominantly affects high SDI men who enjoy a longer life expectancy in which to suffer from this disease and a greater exposure to screening and diagnosis. As lower SDI men are elevated in health and income, reallocation of DALYs will occur, and a greater burden of prostate cancer can be expected. These epidemiologic trends have great implications for the allocation of resources, as the population of men affected by prostate cancer outpaces urologic workforce growth.

Global, regional and national incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life-years of skin cancers and trend analysis from 1990 to 2019: An analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

BACKGROUND: Information about global and local epidemiology and trends of skin cancers is limited, which increases the difficulty of cutaneous cancer control. METHODS: To estimate the global spatial patterns and temporal trends of skin cancer burden. Based on the GBD 2019, we collected and analyzed numbers and age-standardized rates (ASR) of skin cancer incidence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and mortality (ASIR, ASDR, and ASMR) in 204 countries from 1990 through 2019 were estimated by age, sex, subtype (malignant skin melanoma [MSM], squamous-cell carcinoma [SCC], and basal-cell carcinoma [BCC]), Socio-demographic Index (SDI), region, and country. Temporal trends in ASR were also analyzed using estimated annual percentage change. RESULTS: Globally, in 2019, there were 4.0 million BCC, 2.4 million SCC, and 0.3 million MSM. There were approximately 62.8 thousand deaths and 1.7 million DALYs due to MSM, and 56.1 thousand deaths and 1.2 million DALYs were attributed to SCC, respectively. The men had higher ASR of skin cancer burden than women. The age-specific rates of global skin cancer burden were higher in the older adults, increasing trends observed from 55 years old. Geographically, the numbers and ASR of skin cancers varied greatly across countries, with the largest burden of ASIR in high SDI regions. However, an unexpected increase was observed in some regions from 1990 to 2019, such as East Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa. Although there was a slight decrease of the ASMR and ASDR, the global ASIR of MSM dramatically increased, 1990-2019. Also, there was a remarkable increase in ASR of BCC and SCC burden. CONCLUSIONS: Skin cancer remains a major global public health threat. Reducing morbidity and mortality strategies such as primary and secondary prevention should be reconsidered, especially in the most prevalent and unexpected increased regions, especially for those areas with the greatest proportions of their population over age 55.